Corn
Corn trade turned choppy following last week’s correction after the USDA September crop report. Short covering provided the initial bounce, testing resistance as yield reductions confirmed speculation from the past several weeks. Weather, disease, and other pressures trimmed this year’s record-high projection, though USDA offset the cuts with a 1.3 million acre increase.
The combination allowed futures to retrace back to technical targets near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day moving average. Momentum faltered above these levels, leaving trade range-bound into the weekend. Harvest is progressing quickly under neutral weather forecasts, while Brazil advances with summer plantings.
Demand was moderate, with two new sales announced and solid exports, though questions remain whether activity can sustain its early pace. China’s heavy domestic wheat purchases will likely reduce its near-term corn needs. With global and U.S. stocks above average, rallies may struggle without stronger demand or fresh fundamental drivers.
Key Levels: Support at $4.15–$4.00. Resistance at $4.30 initially, with added selling interest at $4.35–$4.50.
Soybeans
Soybean futures started the week strongly but gave back most gains by the close of trade on Friday. Traders remain cautious, awaiting larger U.S. harvest results while closely watching U.S.–China negotiations.
Amid solid U.S. production, weak export demand continues to weigh on sentiment. South America has captured much of global demand, while the U.S. is securing sporadic sales. Reports of constructive discussions between Presidents Trump and Xi offered optimism but little tangible progress. Adequate stocks, active harvest, and ongoing Brazilian planting all are contributing to a neutral-to-bearish backdrop in the near term.
Technically, convergence of moving averages between $10.31–$10.26 possibly providing initial support. A close below this area could accelerate downside toward $10.00–$9.75.
Key Levels: Support at $10.31–$10.26, then $10.00–$9.75. Resistance near $10.50.
Wheat
Wheat futures retreated after failing to sustain last week’s corrective bounce from contract lows. Short covering lifted prices early, but resistance held and momentum faded. Futures closed the week below the 20-day moving average, highlighting continued weakness.
USDA’s slightly tighter U.S. stocks were overshadowed by larger global supplies. Russia lifted production estimates and boosted export capacity, with declining cash prices reinforcing its competitiveness. Other major producers also report favorable conditions. U.S. demand has been active, but buyers face ample alternatives, while China’s large domestic crop and replenished reserves further reduce import needs.
Harvest of the U.S. winter wheat crop is advancing, adding to available supplies and keeping rallies capped.
Key Levels: Support at $5.15–$5.00. Resistance at $5.35–$6.00.
Sugar
Sugar futures posted fresh contract lows before stabilizing on light short covering. Prices remain under pressure as reports from Brazil, India, and Thailand confirm stronger production outlooks. Expanded export options from India, new Pakistani tenders, and uncertain demand from key buyers such as China and Indonesia add to the heavy tone.
Global supplies continue to rise, with Brazil crushing more cane for sugar rather than ethanol, reinforcing the bearish backdrop. While oversold conditions may trigger brief recoveries, upside potential looks limited without a shift in fundamentals.
Key Levels: Support at $0.1500, with stronger interest near $0.1475–$0.1450. Resistance at $0.1575–$0.1600.
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