Corn
Corn futures advanced early in the week on supportive trade headlines between the U.S. and China. Spillover strength from soybeans lifted prices sharply from support as futures rallied to fill the July gap, testing resistance near the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day moving average. Momentum faded late in the week as corn was excluded from any trade agreement, prompting farmer selling and profit-taking ahead of the weekend.
Market sentiment turned cautious at current levels amid expectations of record U.S. production and favorable planting progress across South America. Harvest is moving quickly, with field reports suggesting completion near 75%, though official estimates remain delayed by the government shutdown. Ethanol production eased slightly from last week’s yearly high but remained above year-ago levels, supporting stocks and export potential. Demand may surface intermittently, though record supply limits upside potential. Resistance remains firm around $4.35–$4.50, while support develops near week-end lows and converging moving averages between $4.25 and $4.20. Bears continue to eye a potential retest near $4.00.
Key Levels: Resistance at $4.35–$4.50. Support at $4.25–$4.20 with additional downside risk toward $4.00. 
Soybeans
Soybean futures surged early in the week as optimism over renewed U.S.–China trade progress fueled speculative buying. Reports confirmed China’s commitment to purchase 12 MMT of soybeans by year-end and 25 MMT annually for the next three years starting in 2026. The market found stability as chatter of three cargoes purchased ahead of the announcement was followed by confirmation of four additional sales. The new demand helped offset a season of limited U.S. exports, though traders remain cautious about China’s follow-through given past uncertainty.
The window for near-term shipments is narrowing, with South American premiums undercutting U.S. offers as planting there begins under favorable conditions. As seen throughout prior trade negotiations, policy shifts could spark volatility in the weeks ahead. With the initial upside target at $11.00 reached, futures retreated modestly. Resistance now lies at $11.20–$11.35, while support has risen to $10.75–$10.60. Key support extends through the early-week gap between $10.52¼ and $10.45½, down toward converging moving averages near $10.30.
Key Levels: Resistance at $11.20–$11.35. Support at $10.75–$10.60, with deeper support from $10.52¼–$10.30. 
Wheat
Wheat futures followed the broader grain complex higher early in the week as trade headlines guided direction. Optimism surrounding improved U.S.–China relations forced short covering, driving prices above both the 20- and 50-day moving averages to test resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the 100-day average. Choppy back-and-forth trade persisted as the market awaited updates on U.S. winter-crop progress and export demand.
The Black Sea region remains central to sentiment, with Russian shipments posting another firm week of October sales. Ample global supplies continue to weigh on futures, while speculation of reduced winter-wheat acreage in the U.S. has provided limited support. Increased production from major exporters keeps pressure overhead, though current depressed prices may invite longer-term value buying. Technical stability should emerge near $5.15–$5.00, while rallies face resistance at $5.35–$5.65.
Key Levels: Resistance at $5.35–$5.65. Support at $5.15–$5.00. 
Sugar
Sugar futures extended their decline, slicing through support to post successive contract lows. Prices touched $0.1400 on Friday as expectations of a growing global surplus deepened following stronger-than-expected output from major exporters. The recent downtrend has driven futures to five-year lows, though momentum indicators now approach oversold territory. While further weakness cannot be ruled out, near-term stability may develop as the market digests supply-side news.
Focus remains on Brazil, the world’s largest producer, where surplus estimates rose 0.77 MMT to 2.77 MMT. With increased cane allocation toward sugar over ethanol and steady corn-based ethanol output, exporters remain aggressive. The market’s fast-moving, momentum-driven nature was evident this week as futures fell nearly 100 points from $0.1504 to $0.1400, pushing RSI readings near 30. Short-term stabilization is likely below contract lows around $0.1375, while any rebound faces resistance between $0.1475 and $0.1500. A sustained rally could trigger short covering toward the 20-day average near $0.1550.
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