Corn
Corn futures traded in a flagging pattern this week, unwilling to press or pull meaningfully in either direction until the fundamental landscape offers fresh data. The December crop report showed tightening within estimates but delivered no major surprises, confirming that global supplies remain plentiful. Despite active U.S. demand and a fresh round of sales announcements, prices are struggling to find upside momentum against the weight of large ending stocks.
Eyes remain on South American weather and production estimates which have risen for Brazil while Argentina holds steady. If the current season continues on a neutral pattern producing favorable conditions, the negative impact on prices will likely force acreage reductions in the Northern Hemisphere next year. Unrest in the Black Sea provided minor stability, but with cash markets weakening and Argentina cutting export taxes, the weight on futures persists.
Trading remains range-bound with technicals sitting at neutral levels. The RSI is holding at 49.5, within striking distance of all major moving averages.
Key Levels: Resistance stands at the 50% Fibonacci level near $4.50 in the March ’26 contract, where increased selling is expected. Support targets $4.35–$4.20, with bears eyeing a slide toward contract lows around $4.10 absent friendly news.
Soybeans
Soybean futures struggled as weakness from the previous week spilled over, pressuring prices further. The lead month January ’26 contract set a monthly high of $11.42¼ early on but broke to a fresh recent low of $10.77¼ by Friday. While prices attempted to hold support on increasing sales, the USDA December report indicated solid stock levels—which many believe are still understated and likely to increase.
Export sales continue to lag substantially due to the trade conflict with China, forcing buyers to secure needs from South America and allowing U.S. stocks to build. With Brazil and Argentina showing strong production prospects and offering lower prices, momentum has stalled. The U.S. window to capture global export business is shrinking rapidly, with the Brazilian harvest expected to begin by late January.
Futures saw profit-taking on the break back to neutral levels around $11.00, the 50-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. However, follow-through selling continues as heavy world supplies push prices into key support zones.
Key Levels: Resistance lowers to $11.00 with proven weight near $11.25. Support sits between $10.75–$10.50, filling the gap from the initial trade agreement rally.
Wheat
Wheat futures sat in a relatively tight range this week, gradually working lower on a lack of friendly factors. Prices seem to be shrugging off ongoing conflict in the Black Sea even with reported Ukrainian strikes against Russian vessels. However, prices struggled on the heels of the December crop report in which the USDA increased supply estimates for both the U.S. and the globe.
Adding to the bearish tone, Argentina increased production estimates for this season’s crop to a new record of 27.7 MMT while reducing export taxes. While the U.S. is capturing some demand, reports suggest private estimates are reducing Russian exports due to declining premiums and large stocks. Current depressed price levels are likely to discourage significant acreage expansion for 2026.
Key Levels: Support is expected to find stability on breaks to $5.15–$4.90. Resistance remains proven north of $5.50, scaling toward $5.65–$5.80.
Sugar
Sugar futures found stability in a back-and-forth trade, showing moderate strength into the weekend before reverting to the $0.1500 pivot in the March ’26 contract. Prices tested technical resistance at the 50-day moving average but closed just above it as short positions—entered nearly a year ago—began covering ahead of year-end.
Big crops are driving a global surplus and increasing export potential. Traders remain cautious of follow-through strength given the fundamental outlook, especially as neutral conditions in Brazil and other producing regions suggest strong yields could continue.
Key Levels: Resistance increases on tests near $0.1550 with heavy weight looming between $0.1575–$0.1600. Support sits initially at $0.1475–$0.1450, with bears eyeing a test of $0.1400.
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