Corn
Corn futures found modest spillover support from a strong soybean rally thisweek, though gains were limited by the continued backdrop of ample globalsupplies. While the market noted a daily export sale of 130,500 metric tons tounknown destinations, attention remains heavily focused on South America.Brazil’s first-crop harvest is progressing at 9% complete and 12% of the largersafrinha crop is 12% planted.
Private firms continue to raiseproduction expectations, with StoneX projecting total Brazilian output above132 MMT, reinforcing the view of a well-supplied global market.
U.S. export demand remains firm, but logistical disruptions from ice on theMississippi River and the prospect of cheaper South American supplies areexpected to cap upside momentum in the near term.
Key Levels: Initial resistance is defined near $4.45, with heavier sellingpressure anticipated in the $4.50–$4.60 zone. Support is established near$4.25, with additional downside support around $4.20.
Soybeans
Soybean futures posted an exceptionally volatile week, surging tomulti-month highs amid speculation of renewed Chinese buying interest. Therally was sparked by comments from President Trump suggesting China may beconsidering an additional 8 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases, triggeringaggressive short-covering and speculative buying that pushed prices through keytechnical barriers.
Fundamentally, however, the supply outlook remains heavy.
Brazilian farmers were reportedly aggressive sellers into the strength,while harvest progress continues slightly ahead of last year.
Consultancies such as StoneX and Celeres have revised Brazilian productionestimates higher toward a record crop above 181 MMT. With South Americansupplies still holding a pricing advantage on the world market, the durabilityof the rally will depend on whether China provides concrete confirmation of newdemand.
Key Levels: Resistance is located near the recent highs at $11.40–$11.50.Support is developing near $11.00, followed by stronger support around $10.80.
Wheat
Wheat futures tracked the broader grain complex higher this week, though therally lacked sustained conviction amid a mixed fundamental backdrop. Pricestrength was driven largely by short-covering, as traders remained wary ofpotential headline-driven volatility similar to soybeans.
Russian wheat premiums have reportedly risen for a third consecutive week,though there have been no significant reports of frost damage. In the U.S.,warmer weather forecasts have eased winterkill concerns, though crop conditionratings in several key states remain below year-ago levels.
With global supplies still abundant, rallies are likely to encounter sellingpressure unless a meaningful weather threat or demand shift emerges.
Key Levels: Support is established near $5.15–$5.20. Resistance is definednear $5.50, with additional resistance near $5.65 on any sustained recovery.
Sugar
Sugar futures came under renewed pressure this week, sliding towardmulti-month lows as the outlook for abundant global supplies continued to weighon the market. Prices were pushed lower amid expanding expectations for asizeable global surplus in the 2025/26 season, with analysts forecasting amulti-million-tonne surplus.
Higher production in key regions such as Brazil, India, and Thailand hasreinforced this narrative of ample availability. Weak technical conditions andbearish fundamental sentiment have dominated trading, with intermittent exportdemand and speculative short-covering providing only limited and short-livedsupport. In the absence of a clear bullish catalyst, downside momentum remainsthe prevailing theme as traders continue to factor in the expanding surplusoutlook.
Key Levels: Support is developing near 14.00¢/lb. Resistance is expected toemerge between 15.00¢/lb. and 15.25¢/lb.
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