Corn
Corn futures came under heavy pressure this week following a USDA report that surprised the trade and reinforced the reality of a sizable, record crop replenishing supplies to very comfortable levels. The market reaction was swift and decisive, with the March ’26 contract posting a sharp 25-cent decline as updated figures triggered sell stops and forced short-term longs to exit aggressively. Prices slid to weekly lows just below $4.20, approaching contract lows near $4.10.
As global trade resumed post-holiday, demand headlines provided temporary relief. The USDA reported seven new export sales, helping futures rebound modestly from the lows as shorts took profits. Despite this bounce, upside potential remains limited. U.S. export activity has been solid, but the emergence of Brazil’s first crop harvest, favorable second-crop conditions, and largely neutral weather in Argentina continue to weigh on sentiment. With ample global supplies and improving South American availability, rallies are expected to encounter strong resistance through winter and into early spring.
Key Levels: Initial resistance is seen near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $4.30, with heavier selling pressure anticipated between $4.35–$4.50. Support remains vulnerable near $4.10, with bears targeting a potential move toward $3.95 on renewed weakness.
Soybeans
Soybean futures weakened early in the week as bearish USDA report figures pressured prices from key technical levels. Prior to the report, futures had been consolidating near the 20- and 200-day moving averages and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $10.60. Following the release, prices retreated toward the lower retracement level near $10.35.
Fundamentals continue to reflect adequate supplies both domestically and globally, with limited immediate concern emerging from Brazil or Argentina. Early South American harvests are set to begin in the coming weeks, and the addition of new supplies is expected to further pressure prices, particularly as South American premiums remain cheaper and continue to divert demand away from U.S. exports. That said, demand headlines were supportive, with China, “unknown” destinations, and others stepping in for purchases, marking another active week for U.S. sales.
Going forward, price direction will hinge on South American developments and whether U.S. exports can remain competitive. Crop estimates in Brazil vary widely, with projections ranging from 177.1 MMT to 182.2 MMT, adding uncertainty but little immediate bullish momentum.
Key Levels: Resistance builds near $10.60, with heavier technical pressure between $10.75–$11.00. Downside support rests near $10.25–$10.00, with contract lows remaining a key target on further weakness.
Wheat
Wheat futures extended their decline following another bearish report that confirmed abundant supplies and continued to cap nearby price movement. Increased acreage, solid yields, rising production, and lackluster demand have pushed stocks to levels that are expected to influence future planting decisions. For now, the market remains focused on forward-looking prospects rather than current supply concerns.
Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea offered some underlying support, as renewed reports of infrastructure attacks in Ukraine have disrupted grain movement and forced importers to seek alternative origins. While this dynamic can occasionally support U.S. export opportunities, global competition remains firm. Notably, European wheat prices slipped below corn late in the week, reflecting shifting trade flows tied to Ukrainian logistics challenges.
Overall, unrest provided support at depressed price levels, while heavy stocks continued to limit upside. The market remains range-bound, awaiting clearer direction from fresh fundamental inputs.
Key Levels: Support is developing near contract lows between $5.00–$4.85. Resistance increases near $5.30–$5.45 on any recovery attempts.
Sugar
Sugar futures continue to trade in a flagging, range-bound pattern, finding consistent support on weakness and rebounding toward weekly highs into the weekend. The market remains without a dominant catalyst, keeping prices confined between $0.1400 and $0.1534 since early November. Good prospects for upcoming crop seasons suggest increased export potential from major producers, while minor production concerns in Brazil have helped stabilize prices.
After a prolonged year of declining futures, another week of weakness sparked renewed short covering and short-term bullish positioning. Early-year portfolio reallocations also provided support on dips, contributing to the market’s resilience. Still, traders remain cautious given the broader theme of replenished global supplies, which continues to limit sustained upside across commodities.
Key Levels: Support is expected near $0.1450–$0.1400. Resistance and upside targets are defined between $0.1525–$0.1575.
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