Wheat
Wheat futures posted impressive gains, surging to multi-month highs and breaking out of their recent trading range. The rally was fueled by a combination of technical buying and geopolitical risk. An increase in open interest alongside the price push suggests fresh capital is entering the market, and that it is not just short-covering lifting prices. Underlying support came from ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over dryness and wildfires in the U.S. Plains. The USDA’s Outlook Forum projected a modest decline in wheat acres to 45.0 million, but the market largely shrugged off the report, focusing instead on the renewed bullish momentum. With funds being forced to reconsider their long-held short positions, the path of least resistance appears to have shifted higher.
Key Levels: Initial resistance for the CHI Wheat March ‘26 contract is near the October highs around $5.80, with a stronger barrier at $6.00. We see potential for support near the breakout level of $5.50.
Corn
Corn futures struggled to find a bullish footing this week, trading sideways in a choppy pattern. The USDA’s annual Outlook Forum failed to stir excitement, with initial projections for the 2025-26 season landing close to pre-report estimates. The agency forecast 94.0 million planted acres, down from 98.8 million the prior year, with a projected price of $4.20 per bushel. While these figures suggest a tighter balance sheet, the market reaction was muted as traders recognize these are not official survey-based numbers. Sentiment was further pressured by favorable weather forecasts in South America, where widespread rains are expected to benefit developing crops. With Brazil’s critical safrinha corn planting window closing soon, attention remains on its progress, but for now, ample global supplies are keeping any significant rallies in check.
Key Levels: Initial resistance for the March ‘26 contract is seen near the $4.39-$4.43 area. Key support remains around $4.20, with a break below targeting the contract lows near $4.10.
Soybeans
Soybean futures consolidated this week, holding near multi-month highs as the market digested conflicting fundamental signals. Strong domestic crush demand and a record January crush reported by NOPA continue to provide underlying support. However, the market’s upside was capped by the USDA’s Outlook Forum, which projected soybean acres at 85.0 million, a significant increase from the previous year. This forecast, combined with a rebound in expected exports, points toward adequate supplies for the upcoming season. Adding to the mixed sentiment, the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump-era tariffs introduced volatility, sparking fears it could reduce China’s motivation for future purchases. For now, the market remains in a technical uptrend, supported by strong demand for soybean oil and meal.
Key Levels: Resistance for the March ‘26 contract is established between $11.38–$11.40. Downside support is found at the recent consolidation area around $11.00, with further support near the 200-day moving average around $10.80.
Sugar
Sugar futures rallied sharply, posting a 1.5-week high as a weaker U.S. dollar and supportive fundamental news triggered a technical breakout. Prices jumped after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs, a move that could potentially increase Brazilian sugar exports to the U.S. and tighten global supplies. The rally was further supported by reports from Brazil’s Center-South region indicating a 36% year-over-year decline in sugar production during the second half of January. While cumulative production for the 2025-26 season remains slightly ahead of last year, the recent slowdown and a higher ratio of cane being crushed for sugar helped stabilize prices after a multi-month decline.
Key Levels: Resistance for Sugar #11 March ‘26 Futures is seen at the 50-day moving average near 14.80 and the key psychological level of 15.00. We’re watching for support around the recent lows of 14.05.
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