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Wheat
December Chicago wheat settled at $7.34 Friday, down 20 1/4 cents on the day and 50 cents on the week. It printed $7.95 Wednesday, a three-year high, then gave back 61 cents in two sessions. December Kansas City lost 42 cents on the week to $8.02 1/4, and December spring wheat shed 24 1/4 to $7.45.
Putin told an economic forum in East Russia on Thursday that there was a “chance” for peace with Ukraine.
StoneX’s Arlan Suderman wrote that the market “took a big hit overnight when Russian President Putin mentioned the word ‘peace’ in a statement at a time when the speculative funds had built quite a war premium into prices,” and he sees no evidence either side is de-escalating.
Managed money swung 28,501 contracts in a week to a 14,904-contract net long in Chicago wheat as of Tuesday, September 1, the largest since May 2022 (CFTC, futures only). Meanwhile the physical market kept tightening.
Russia zeroed its floating export duty on wheat, barley and corn through December 31 to “restructure logistics” after Ukrainian strikes hit routes carrying more than 70% of its exports. SovEcon has Russian September shipments at the lowest for the month since 2010. Suderman puts combined Russian and Ukrainian volumes near 40% of normal and still falling.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are due in Moscow and Kyiv over the holiday weekend, the first US envoy visit to Kyiv since the 2022 invasion. Anything concrete could pressure prices further.
Marex’s Tim Bulfer noted Asian buyers took 500,000 metric tons of Australian and Argentine wheat this week to replace Black Sea supply, Saudi Arabia tendered for 535,000 tons for November and December delivery, and US wheat is priced out of both. Watch the ports. Continued strikes on export infrastructure could put additional premium back in this market.
Corn
December corn settled at $5.36 3/4 Friday, down 4 cents, and closed the week up a quarter of a cent. It touched $5.49 3/4 Wednesday, a three-year high. Friday was the low close of the week.
Managed money’s net long in corn reached 431,062 contracts as of Tuesday, September 1, counting futures and options, the largest in CFTC’s disaggregated record going back to June 2006. The futures-only figure is 401,003, up 83,555 on the week and up from 11,361 eight weeks ago. December open interest crossed 1 million contracts for the first time in the contract’s history, a detail Bulfer flagged Friday morning.
The fundamental case underneath is real but narrower than the length suggests. USDA’s September 11 Crop Production report has to square August’s 180.7-bushel yield with Pro Farmer’s 173.2-bushel tour estimate, a 669 million bushel gap.
Pro Farmer’s Dr. Michael Cordonnier trimmed his own yield a bushel to 178.0 this week, writing that corn “was more impacted by adverse weather in August than soybeans.” Conditions held at 57% good-to-excellent. A smaller crop than August said is still a big crop, and that’s why each new high has stalled.
RSI closed at 70, right on the overbought line. September 11 is the next real input. A meaningful yield cut could support prices; with funds this long, a cut smaller than the market expects might do the opposite.
Soybeans
November soybeans settled at $13.09 3/4 Friday, down 6 1/2 cents, and gained 21 3/4 cents on the week, the best of the four markets here. December meal hit a two-year high before settling at $355.10, up $6.20 on the week. December bean oil dropped 179 points to 69.27 cents.
The EPA granted small refinery exemptions worth 1.76 billion RINs, roughly double what it had penciled in, then promised to reallocate 100% of the excess into 2026 and 2027 obligations before the end of October.
The market traded the reallocation and shrugged at the headline number, which is the right read: the roughly 500 million gallons of biomass-based diesel demand the American Soybean Association had warned about moves to other refiners instead of disappearing.
China continued buying this week. USDA reported a 192,000 metric ton flash sale to China Thursday and 250,600 tons to unknown destinations Friday, and Standard Grain’s Joe Vaclavik notes new crop soybean commitments are running 104% ahead of last year.
Conditions slipped 2 points to 58% good-to-excellent, a fourth straight weekly decline. Managed money’s 234,920-contract net long is the largest in the futures-only series since 2019.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the US and China plan announcements on agriculture and non-tariff barriers when Xi Jinping visits Washington this month. That’s the catalyst to watch. A firm Chinese commitment could support prices into harvest; a stall could pressure them even as the crop shrinks. RSI closed near 73, the same overbought reading as corn. Heat across the western Corn Belt may end the season early, which Cordonnier warns can trim yield through lighter seed weight.
Sugar
October Sugar No. 11 settled at 18.07 cents Friday, unchanged on the day and up 51 points on the week. It traded to 18.77 Wednesday. March 2027 settled at 19.05.
The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 11.9% in August, the sharpest gain of any food group the agency tracks and its highest level since June 2025. The FAO named four drivers: lower EU beet yields, El Niño risk in Asia, weaker Brazilian output and India’s turn to duty-free raw imports.
The International Sugar Organization now has 2026/27 swinging from a 1.1 million metric ton surplus to a 200,000 ton deficit, and it halved its 2025/26 surplus from the 2.2 million tons it carried in May.
Brazil’s Center-South made 3.31 million tons of sugar in the first half of August, down 7.9% year over year, with season-to-date output down 11.7% as mills fed cane to ethanol. French beet is tracking more than 20% below its five-year average. India cut its 2025-26 estimate to 30.6 million tons from 34.3 million. That’s a lot of downgrades in one month, and the price responded accordingly.
Managed money went from a 116,424-contract net short five weeks ago to a 233,771-contract net long as of Tuesday, September 1, the largest since January 2023. A rebuild that fast leaves the market exposed if any piece of the supply story softens. Brazil is the piece that could. Hedgepoint sees Center-South cane at 635.5 million tons in 2026/27 against 611.2 million last season, and mills have room to send more of it to sugar at these prices. Watch the mix. A worse El Niño outcome in Asia may support prices further; a strong Brazilian second half might take some of the premium back out.
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